2021 NFL Odds Favor Mahomes to Lead League in Passing TDs

The 2021 NFL season is less than a week away and all eyes will be on the Kansas City Chiefs to see if they can make it three straight Super Bowl appearances. As usual, any success that they see will likely be because of NFL MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes, who’ll be starting under center in Kansas City for his fourth season in a row.

Fortunately, it looks as if another impressive season is in Mahomes future as Bovada is favoring him to lead all quarterbacks in passing touchdowns in the 2021 NFL season at +300 odds.

It wouldn’t be hard to imagine Mahomes leading the league in passing touchdowns, especially after he already accomplished the task in 2018 — the same year that he won his lone MVP trophy. In fact, no quarterback has more passing touchdowns than Mahomes’ 114 since he became the Chiefs No. 1 QB in 2018. The next closest is Seattle Seahawks gunslinger Russell Wilson (106), who has eight fewer touchdowns despite playing three more games than Mahomes in that span.

Regardless, the odds are looking pretty good for the two-time All-Pro quarterback to achieve that honor again. The Chiefs offense is built around him, which includes throwing the ball a lot. Kansas City’s 39.7 passing attempts per game (PPG) in 2020 ranked third-most across the league. Assuming that continues in the 2021 NFL season, expect Mahomes to continue putting up superstar-quality numbers.

2021 NFL Passing Touchdowns Leader Odds

Odds via Bovada as of Friday, September 3

  • Patrick Mahomes (+300)
  • Tom Brady (+550)
  • Aaron Rodgers (+700)
  • Josh Allen (+900)
  • Russell Wilson (+1000)
  • Dak Prescott (+1200)
  • Matt Ryan (+1500)
  • Matthew Stafford (+1500)
  • Joe Burrow (+2000)
  • Justin Herbert (+2000)
  • Baker Mayfield (+2200)
  • Kirk Cousins (+2200)

Complete odds list is available at Bovada.lv.

Tom Brady Passing Touchdowns Odds

At +550 odds, Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady has the second-best shot at leading the 2021 NFL season in passing touchdowns. Even though he’s well into his 40s, the seven-time Super Bowl champion hasn’t looked it. Prior to bringing the Buccaneers to Super Bowl 55, Brady finished the 2020 season with 4,633 passing yards while reaching 40 touchdowns for just the second time in his career. Even quarterbacks half his age would have a tough time doing that.

At the end of the day, Brady’s 40 touchdowns in 2020 were tied with Wilson (+1000) for second-most in the league — trailing the league leader by eight. Still, Brady showed that he can still compete at the highest level even at this stage of his career. The Buccaneers managed to bring back the most important pieces of their offense from last year’s championship run, so Brady is in a prime position to fight to become the 2021 NFL passing touchdowns leader.

Aaron Rodgers 2021 NFL Passing Touchdowns Odds

In case you were wondering who led the NFL in passing TDs last year, it was none other than the Green Bay Packers’ own Aaron Rodgers. Not only were his 48 touchdowns last season a career-best, but it was also tied for the fifth-highest total in NFL history. Now, if Rodgers can pull off the accomplishment again, he’d join the exclusive list of players who’ve done it three or more times.

While he may not be as old as Brady, Rodgers has been aging like fine wine as well. He won his third NFL MVP award last year and will be looking to carry that momentum over into 2021. The Packers have surrounded him with talented pass-catchers, including the 2020 receiving touchdowns leader Davante Adams (18). Green Bay even reunited Rodgers with one of his all-time favorite targets, Randall Cobb, over the offseason. Considering how he’ll want to prove his doubters wrong after a drama-filled offseason, expect Rodgers to continue competing as one of the best quarterbacks that the NFL has to offer.

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Devon Platana
After graduating with a Masters degree in Journalism, Devon joined USGS to improve his sports writing skills. As a lifelong sports fan, one of Devon’s favorite things to do is analyze statistics across all sports.