More money on Trump?
The 2020 Presidential election is less than a month away, and while some might be steadfast in their belief that former Vice President Joe Biden has this one in the bag, that might not be the case anymore. In fact, according to current numbers from oddschecker.com, 75% of all the money bet on the upcoming Presidential election in the last week was for Donald Trump.
While Trump previously suffered a dip in odds over the weekend, the newest numbers have him up to a 40% chance of winning the election. That number is a 6-point increase from where he was a few days ago and is believed to be connected to the information coming out about Hunter Biden. It’s almost as if some think this is the one thing that could bring Biden’s entire campaign down.
Biden Being Haunted by Ukraine Scandal
Biden’s dealings with Ukraine became a focal point once again this year after a laptop that supposedly had information about the alleged scandal President Trump, was delivered to the New York Post. Trump is also asking his Attorney General, William Barr, to investigate the matter further, thus another probable reason why so many bets are now coming in for Trump to once again come out victorious.
The Post published a story last week that claimed they were made aware of the hard drive by former Trump advisor, Steve Bannon, and Rudy Giuliani is said to have supplied the newspaper with a copy of the hard drive. The hard drive supposedly contains photos and emails of Hunter Biden’s business dealings with Ukraine during Biden’s time as Vice President, but some aren’t so sure.
No Solid Authenticity, But a Smoking Gun?
Many critics of the story point to the fact that the laptop was allegedly abandoned at a pawn shop in Delaware, checked by the FBI, and then somehow got into the hands of Rudy Giuliani. The craziest part of it all is that the hard drive is said to contain photos of Hunter Biden and Vadym Pozharskyi, who is an advisor at the Ukraine energy company, Burisma.
The information about Biden’s son has blown the election back open to some extent, but the former Vice President remains the odds-on favorite to win in November. Of course, Biden’s odds did drop a bit due to the scandal coming back up, but it remains to be seen if this will truly have the effect that voters are hoping it will.
Repeat of 2016 Presidential Election?
Either way, the odds are looking hauntingly like what was predicted by several sportsbooks in 2016. For those that might not remember, Hillary Clinton had a 60% lead over Donald Trump in betting odds, but more money was wagered on Trump winning. That is the case again this year, and it could be an indicator of Trump getting a second term in office.
Now, betting on the upcoming election is illegal in The United States, but The United Kingdom and several other countries still wager on the event every four years. Beyond that, the wagering pool reaches the 100 million-dollar mark very easily and is constantly changing based on what happens in real-time.
How Real-Life Situations have Affected Betting
One example of that is when Donald Trump caught the Coronavirus and had to be taken to Walter Reed Medical Center. This forced all gambling outlets in the U.K to halt betting odds for the election until Donald Trump recovered from the virus. Trump’s diagnosis also stopped many people in other countries from placing a bet on the election, which should speak to the uncertainty of the situation at the time.
Another example of how easily the odds can change due to world events is the fact that several odds sites cut Biden’s odds in half after the first debate. Maybe that had to do with Biden’s poise during that debate, or just the possibility that citizens were tired of Trump’s antics, but the debate victory gave him a jump from 55.60 to 58.34.
Trump’s bombastic approach towards the debate ended up backfiring on him, with his numbers dropping from 45.50 to 42.10. If nothing else, this all proves just how easily odds can change in real-time scenarios and that the odds will probably continue to shift until election day finally comes in November.
2020 Election Pretty Much Up in The Air?
Fast-forwarding to now and Joe Biden currently sits with a 61.5% chance of winning to Trump’s 40 percent. Again, the current odds for the presidential election is so eerily like 2016, that some are left to wonder if America will see a full-on repeat in November? Furthermore, with the amount of money that has been bet on Trump in the last week, it’s hard not to wonder what these people are seeing?
Keep in mind that the polls and the oddsmakers got it wrong in 2016 and very well could again in 2020. Whether that ends up happening twice in a row remains to be seen, but with so many different variables at play, it’s hard to know what to think at this point. It’s probably all going to come down to the final week of the election and whoever can deliver the more effective message to their group of supporters.
In the end, there is still a lot of trail to cover for both campaigns and a plethora of things that could happen to alter the odds. Who knows! Joe Biden could end up destroying Trump and turn America blue again. Or maybe Trump wins and keep his stranglehold on Washington DC. It’s all up in the air and that might just be the scariest part of all this.