Joey Chestnut Odds: How Many Hot Dogs Will He Eat This Year?

A lot of things come to people’s minds when they think of the Fourth of July. Some of those things include fireworks, parties, and, of course, Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest. Some of the globe’s best competitive eaters meet every Independence Day to see who can eat the most hot dogs. Plus, everyone knows it’s not a typical hot dog competition without the reigning champion, Joey Chestnut.

If you’re not familiar with Chestnut or his career as a professional eater, the easiest way to introduce him is that he’s the Wayne Gretzky of hot dog eating. He’s held and created multiple world records since 2006 and is constantly outdoing himself at the annual hot dog eating contest. To put things into perspective, Chestnut has won 13 out of the last 14 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contests. The closest competitor to matching that wins total is Takeru Kobayashi, who’s won the event six times.

As strange as a hot dog eating competition sounds, it’s still classified by some as a sport, which means there’s a sports betting market for it. With just under a month away until the next event, BetOnline has released odds for how many hot dogs Joey Chestnut will eat at this year’s Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest. So far, the sportsbook has set the total at 73.5. However, will the defending champion hit the over or the under?

Continue reading to see the odds.

Joey Chestnut Odds: How Many Hot Dogs Will He Eat at the 2021 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?

Odds via BetOnline as of Monday, June 7

  • Over 73.5 (-130)
  • Under 73.5 (-110)

Chestnut Favored to Eat Over 73.5 Hot Dogs

At -130 odds, BetOnline is favoring Joey Chestnut to eat more than 73.5 hot dogs at this year’s competition. On one hand, it shouldn’t be that surprising. After all, he’s eaten 74 or more in two out of his last three outings at Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest. Chestnut set the record by eating 74 hot dogs in 2018, only to beat himself in 2020 by destroying 75. Judging by those numbers, it seems like the 37-year-old actually stands a pretty good chance at hitting the over.

With that being said, no matter how good the odds are, nothing is a guarantee in the world of sports betting. While Joey Chestnut has eaten 74 or more hot dogs before, he failed to hit the mark in 2019 when he finished with 71. That’s still a lot of meat, but it shows that sometimes even the best competitive eaters have a tough time topping their previous performance. In a way, it’s similar to professional sports. Every athlete will hit their career-high at some point, only to never reach it again. For all we know, the 74- and 75-hot dog totals that Chestnut has finished with could be amounts that he never sees again for his entire competitive eating career.

Nevertheless, if anyone can set another new record at next month’s Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, it’s the Joey Chestnut. He has the resume, talents and stomach to make it happen. Now, all that’s left to do is to watch him try on the Fourth of July.

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Devon Platana
After graduating with a Masters degree in Journalism, Devon joined USGS to improve his sports writing skills. As a lifelong sports fan, one of Devon’s favorite things to do is analyze statistics across all sports.