Looking At Some Popular NFL Draft Prop Bets
With NFL Draft week here, there are lots of different prop bets that should pique the interest of bettors. Individual pick selections, to the number of players from a school or conference, to who the first overall pick will hug first after being selected, will all be considered.
Today, we’re looking at some of the most debate-worthy props and over/unders that are listed right now, along with some picks for each of them.
* All bets according to BetOnline as of April 19
O/U Pick 5.5 for Tua Tagovailoa
There is no player who will be talked about more going into Thursday night than Tua Tagovailoa. The Alabama quarterback won a National Championship for the Crimson Tide and was in the conversation to be the No. 1 overall pick before a hip injury gave way. Due to injury concerns, several teams may not be comfortable taking him early in the first round, but the talent and upside is top-five worthy.
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The 5.5 is mainly a question of who between the Dolphins and Chargers lands the lefty QB. Miami, which owns the fifth overall pick, has been getting linked to Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert a lot over the last couple of weeks.
This would then leave Los Angeles to select Tua at No. 6. However, if the Chargers prefer Herbert and were to trade up to select him, that could leave Tagovailoa sitting there for the Dolphins at No. 5.
As things stand now, it seems like too many teams are getting scared off by Tua’s injuries. And during a draft season where in-person medical examinations aren’t happening, there is more risk than ever in selecting a player with a significant injury history. Especially if that player happens to be a guy you envision as your next franchise quarterback.
Verdict: OVER Pick 5.5
O/U Pick 15.5 for C.J. Henderson
The consensus best cornerback in the draft, Ohio State’s Jeff Okudah, will be a top-10 selection, going perhaps as high as third overall. The second cornerback could be anyone’s guess, but it seems C.J. Henderson is the one generating the most buzz. The Florida cornerback has been mocked anywhere from the early 20s to inside the top 10.
One possible fit for Henderson is the Jaguars at ninth overall. With both Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye gone, Jacksonville is expected to look at cornerback with either of its two first-rounders, the second of which is No. 20.
If the Jags pass on Henderson, look for the Falcons to be interested. Atlanta, who has the 16th selection, could wait for Henderson if they wanted. But lots of rumors have been swirling about them wanting to trade up, and with the Jaguars, Raiders, and even the 49ers potentially addressing cornerback, Atlanta might have to trade up to get him.
Right now, the arrow is pointing up on Henderson. There are multiple teams linked to him, all of whom are in the top half of the draft or would consider trading up. Henderson seems to be most teams’ choice as the next-best cornerback in the draft and should hear his name called fairly early.
Verdict: UNDER Pick 15.5
O/U 15.5 SEC players drafted in Round 1
This has become a popular bet, mostly based on how high the total is set at. But it’s no mistake, as the previous record of 12 players from one conference taken in round one is expected to be shattered this year. Right now, oddsmakers think it’s possible to have half of the first round coming from the SEC.
There are, of course, a few future first-rounders we know for sure. LSU’s Joe Burrow, Auburn’s Derrick Brown, Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III, and South Carolina’s Javon Kinlaw are among the 12 or so players who are all widely expected to be first-round picks.
The ones of the fence, however, will determine whether the over hits on this bet. Those players include but aren’t limited to, LSU CB Kristian Fulton, Alabama CB Trevon Diggs and S Xavier McKinney, and Georgia RB D’Andre Swift and OT Isaiah Wilson.
As of now, the latest projections lean somewhere around 15 SEC players. But that could certainly change if there is a run on offensive lineman early, leading a team to take Wilson near the end of the first. But right now, we’ll play the under and hope for the best.
Verdict: UNDER 15.5 players
First Wide Receiver Drafted
This draft class has been heralded for its depth at wide receiver, but three players stand out above the rest. Alabama wideouts Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III, as well as Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb, are all surefire first-round picks, with each of them in the conversation to be the first selected at their position. Currently, Lamb has moved into the favorite position at +100, followed by Jeudy at +120 and Ruggs at +350.
Beginning with the Jets at No. 11, followed by the Raiders at 12, the 49ers at 13, and the Broncos at 15, it’s possible that these elite receivers are all off of the board in the top half of the first round. Currently, we’re hearing a lot of rumors about the Jets and Ruggs, the Raiders and Lamb or Jeudy, and the Broncos and Jeudy. Don’t rule out the Eagles at No. 21 to perhaps make a move to trade for WR, but the chances of them leaping all of those teams seem slim.
Of all of the rumors, the one that seems to be the most-reported is the Broncos eyeing a trade up. With Jeudy seemingly on the top of their draft board, Denver could trade with Cleveland at No. 10 or even Arizona at No. 8 to get him. If that’s the case, Jeudy seems like a logical choice to be the first wide receiver selected.
Verdict: Jerry Jeudy +120
When will Jalen Hurts be selected?
Our last prop is for the prospect with perhaps the highest range of outcomes. Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts, who finished as the runner-up for the Heisman Trophy behind Joe Burrow, has been mocked all across the board, ranging from late in the first round to somewhere during day three. Right now, Round 2 is the favorite at -125, followed by Round 3 at +150, Round 4-7 at +575, and the long shot Round 1 at +1000.
Hurts doesn’t have a shortage of suitors. Reputable reporters have confirmed that the Packers and Chargers have met with him virtually and might have interest in selecting him.
Green Bay, in particular, has been linked to Hurts, with Aaron Rodgers already at age 36. As for L.A., a second- or third-round selection seems more likely, assuming they don’t draft a quarterback in the first round.
Another team that has recently been rumored to have an interest in Hurts is the Patriots. With Jarrett Stidham currently first on the depth chart, New England could draft Hurts in the third round or even trade up into the second round if he fell far enough. Other sleeper teams include the Colts and the Raiders, the latter of which has three third-round picks.
Hurts is the most unique quarterback of this class and carries immense boom or bust potential. While he may not be at the same level as Burrow, Tagovailoa, or Herbert, some clubs may look at the reigning MVP, Lamar Jackson, and hope that Hurts has that same kind of upside. To me, I see him as a comfortable second-round selection.
Verdict: Round 2 -125