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Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros Betting Preview

Tuesday kicks off a three-game series between two first-place teams as Milwaukee travels to Houston to take on the Astros. This series has a legitimate chance to be the one we see in October for the Fall Classic, as well.

Starting Pitchers

Brad Peacock gets the ball Tuesday for the Astros after taking a tough loss last time out in Seattle. Peacock has been absolutely money for the Astros the last six starts. Each of those starts has gone at least five innings, with Peacock giving up two runs or less in every game. In that stretch, he’s gone 3-1 with a 1.32 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. In those 34 innings pitched, he has struck out 41 batters.

Peacock is finding success by limiting the number of home runs he gives up this year. That’s a crucial part of Peacock’s game because of how many fly balls he gives up. His FB% this year is 40.1%, which is right around his career average. However, his home run to fly ball ratio is all the way down to 7.2%. That is exactly four points lower than his career average of 11.2%.

For the Brewers, it is going to be Freddy Peralta taking the hill. Last Thursday, he shut down the Marlins to the tune of one run over six innings. It was Peralta’s first win in over a month, and only his third all season in 11 games (seven of those being starts).

While Peralta has been fairly average this far, his peripherals suggest he’s on the edge of a good run. His FIP and xFIP are both almost a run lower than his ERA. His BABIP is almost at .340, and when that evens out, so will his ERA. He has great strikeout and walk numbers as well. His K/9 is over 10 with a 25.7 K%. Meanwhile, his BB/9 is only 2.66. Peralta is definitely a candidate to lead this Brewers rotation back into the playoffs.

Batters To Watch

It is nearly impossible to talk about the Milwaukee Brewers without mentioning Christian Yelich in some capacity. Somehow, Yelich is having an even better year than he did in 2018 when he won the MVP. His K% is down four points, and his BB% is up almost five. He is on pace to hit more home runs, as well as have more runs batted in and have a higher WAR.

The bad news keeps getting worse for Brad Peacock. At home and against righties, Yelich is other-worldly. It is a decent sample size, too. In 27 games at home against right-handed pitching, Yelich is hitting .441!! He’s hit 13 of his 24 home runs against that split as well, to go along with 27 RBI. Peacock needs to tread carefully when pitching to Yelich on Tuesday.

There have been a lot of players over the years to come up with the Astros and make noise at the plate. Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, and George Springer, to name a few. This trend continued last Sunday when Yordan Alvarez made his MLB debut. After hitting .343 with 23 home runs and 71 RBIs in 56 games with Round Rock, he did not disappoint on Sunday, hitting a 413-foot bomb to left center field.

The Pick

I really like the strikeout potential for Peralta in this game against the Astros, who strike out the second most in the league. This series has some game of the year potential with the star power on each side, but I like Yelich and company to get it done on Tuesday.