MLB DFS Betting Tips for Tuesday July 16, 2019
The Tuesday night MLB DFS slate is one of the uglier slates that we should see all year with all 30 teams on the slate. The pitching options on this slate are very inconsistent, and that allows us to take a lot of risks without worrying about a stud that could ruin the slate.
The closest pitcher to a stud on this slate is Walker Buehler, who pitches against the Phillies tonight in Philadelphia. The Phillies are a patient offense with a lot of pop in a small park, so I don’t have a lot of interest in Buehler here.
My two favorite pitchers in this region are Michael Pineda and Dylan Cease. Like I mentioned above, this slate lacks elite options. This makes me more willing to attack elite upside pitchers that aren’t super reliable. Both Pineda and Cease have the raw stuff capable of putting up an elite performance on any given day.
Pineda has hit his upside in the last two games, and he now gets the Mets at home tonight. The Mets are average in the strikeout department and average in the power department. It’s not the best matchup in the world, but Pineda does have elite upside in this spot, which is what I am looking for tonight.
Dylan Cease is a prospect with suspect control but elite stuff. Cease gets a Royals team without a ton of pop, and they are a team that does not walk much. If Cease can keep the ball around the strike zone, I think he will have a solid game tonight.
Jack Flaherty is just too cheap for his talent level on most sites. The matchup vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates in St. Louis is not a great one, but Flaherty is worth over $1,000 on both sites if we were to just look at talent. This is the slate to bet on talent with limited elite options, and I will be doing it with Flaherty tonight at the mid-7 price tag on both slates.
My favorite cheap option on this slate is Alec Mills making his first start of the season with the Cubs. Mills should be fully stretched out and will be facing an average Reds lineup at home tonight.
Mills’ overall minor league statistics in the minors this season don’t seem great, but I am pretty lenient on pitchers coming from the PCL. Mills pitched in bad pitchers parks and still posted a nice strikeout rate along the way. I think Mills has a nice outlook tonight at a very cheap price tag.
Tonight is a Coors slate, which always provides a lot of interesting options because of the potential upside it provides. Tonight I am really interested in Coors because we get to pick on Peter Lambert and Drew Pomeranz in the altitude.
Just a few weeks ago, I was attacking the Rockies with Pomeranz at a cheap price with a lot of success, but the altitude changes a lot here. I prefer the Rockies stack tonight against a lefty that relies on strikeouts and curveballs to get out of jams. The altitude in Colorado decreases curveball movement and decreases strikeouts, a recipe for disaster when it comes to Pomeranz.
The Nationals looks like one of the best non-Coors stacks on the slate against Asher Wojciechowski. Wojciechowski is a decent Triple-A starter at best, and that really is being generous. The Nationals get great weather and a great park to pick on one of the worst pitchers in baseball.
My favorite lower-owned stack is the Twins against Steven Matz. The Twins project as a great stack because they have a lot of power and could be seeing a lot of the Mets’ horrid bullpen. Matz struggled so much in the month of June that he became a bullpen arm as of a few weeks ago.
Now, with an injury to Zack Wheeler, Matz is being asked to start again. If Matz is limited by pitch count or ability, it should be a field day for the Twins offense.