NFL Odds: Projecting Trevor Lawrence’s Stats for the 2021 Season

The 2021 NFL Draft started just like how everyone predicted it would: Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence getting selected 1st overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Now, Lawrence will turn his attention to being prepared for the start of the 2021 NFL season. Being a rookie quarterback in the league is no simple task, especially if you’re the first player taken in your class. There’s no doubt that Lawrence can compete at a high level, but the world just needs to see if he needs an adjustment period or not.

Nevertheless, it’s not surprising to see that some people are already trying to predict how the former Clemson signal-caller will play. In fact, BetOnline has released several markets reflecting Lawrence’s 2021 NFL stats. Some range from predicting how many passing yards he’ll have to the number of interceptions he’ll throw.

NFL Odds: Lawrence Rushing Touchdowns in 2021

Odds via BetOnline as of Tuesday, May 4

  • Under 4 Rushing TDs (-130)
  • Over 4 Rushing TDs (-110)

At -130 odds, BetOnline is favouring that Lawrence will record fewer than 4 rushing touchdowns in the 2021 NFL season. Over his three seasons with Clemson, Lawrence rushed for 943 yards on 68 attempts, scoring 18 touchdowns in the process. So, the potential is there, but rushing at the NFL level is much more difficult. Teams will figure out what Lawrence can do and limit the run, which is why he may not score that many rushing TDs until he gains experience.

How Many Passing Yards Will Lawrence Record?

Odds via BetOnline as of Tuesday, May 4

  • Under 4,250 Passing Yards (-130)
  • Over 4,250 Passing Yards (-110)

If you’re familiar with Lawrence, you know his aerial work is far more impressive than his ground game. A player doesn’t just throw for 10,098 passing yards and 90 touchdowns over three seasons with a bad arm. With that being said, BetOnline thinks Lawrence will throw for fewer than 4,250 passing yards this NFL season.

The fact is that Lawrence never recorded that many yards in a college football season, with the most being 3,665 in 2019. To think that he would arrive in the NFL and instantly surpass 4,000 would be asking too much from him. Only eight quarterbacks threw more than 4,250 yards in 2020 and the only one who was a rookie was Justin Herbert. With that being said, Lawrence could be capable of putting those numbers up, but it depends on how the new-look Jaguars play.

NFL Odds: Lawrence Interceptions in 2021

Odds via BetOnline as of Tuesday, May 4

  • Over 12.5 Interceptions (-140)
  • Under 12.5 Interceptions (+100)

Lawrence has never thrown more than 8 interceptions in a college season, but BetOnline is favoring that he’ll throw 13 or more in the 2021 NFL season. It’s not a slight against Lawrence. He’ll need to adjust to the league and learn how to read a pro defense. Even a veteran like Russell Wilson threw 13 last season, so it’s not like the Jaguars expect their first overall pick to play mistake-free football. As Lawrence gains experience, the interceptions will decrease.

How Many Touchdowns Will Lawrence Throw?

Odds via BetOnline as of Tuesday, May 4

  • Over 27 Passing Touchdowns (-120)
  • Under 27 Passing Touchdowns (-120)

This market could really go either way. On one hand, Lawrence has thrown for 30 touchdowns twice in his college career. The only time when he didn’t was when he threw 24 last season, but it was in five fewer games than previous years. The Jaguars have given him several pass-catchers to work with, like D.J. Chark, Marvin Jones Jr. and Travis Etienne, so there’s no reason why Lawrence can’t reach 27 passing touchdowns. All that matters is whether he’ll need time to adjust or not to the NFL.

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Devon Platana
After graduating with a Masters degree in Journalism, Devon joined USGS to improve his sports writing skills. As a lifelong sports fan, one of Devon’s favorite things to do is analyze statistics across all sports.