The Oklahoma Sooner has owned the Big 12 over the last several years. The Sooners have claimed five consecutive conference titles, including three in a row since the Big 12 title game returned in 2017. In the history of the Big 12 title game, the Sooners have appeared in 11, winning 10.
To continue their dominance, the Sooners will have to get past championship game debutant Iowa State. AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas once again hosts the title tilt, which kicks off at 11:00 am local time on ABC. The Sooners are favored by almost a touchdown, while the total for the game is 58. The #6 Cyclones (8-2, 8-1 Big 12) still harbor playoff hopes, while the #10 Sooners (7-2, 6-2) have more leapfrogging to do if they are to appear in the CFP for the fourth season in a row.
Will the Sooners win yet another Big 12 title, or will Iowa State continue its dream season and remain in the playoff mix for at least a few more hours?
Oklahoma Sooners Preview
Oklahoma was ranked third early in the season but started 0-2 in Big 12 play, losing at home to Kansas State then losing at Iowa State the following week.
Since then, the Sooners have won six games in a row. It has not been enough to get them into a better CFP position, but it has secured their place in the conference title game.
The Sooners gave up 117 points in their first three conference games but have outscored their opponents 225-78 in their last five games. Only one opponent has scored more than 14 points, which was Texas Tech in a 62-28 OU win in Lubbock on Halloween. Only one opponent has held them under 30 points, which Baylor did in the Sooners’ 27-14 win two weeks ago.
Oklahoma is not as prolific offensively as they were with Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Jalen Hurts leading the offense, but the Sooners do average 43.4 points and 485.1 yards per game. Freshman QB Spencer Rattler (68.5% completion percentage, 2,512 yards, 24 TD, 7 INT) has made few mistakes since throwing five interceptions in his first four games.
The defense has been stout in recent weeks. OU gave up 400 or more yards four times in their first six games. Over the last three, they have given up only 260 yards per game.
Iowa State Cyclones Preview
It has been an amazing season for Iowa State. Coming into 2020, the Cyclones had won eight games or more in a season 10 times in 122 seasons. This season did not get off on a good note, as they lost 31-14 at home to Louisiana. The only stumble since then, however, is a 24-21 loss at then #6 Oklahoma State on October 24.
Since that defeat in Stillwater, Iowa State has won five in a row. As a result, they enter the Big 12 title game with a decent chance to get into the CFP if they win and other results go their way. For the Cyclones, offensive efficiency and strong defense have been the backbones of their success. Only twice have they turned the ball over two or more times this season, and they have not turned the ball over in their last three games. Iowa State QB Brock Purdy (66.2% completion percentage, 2,272 yards, 17 TD, 6 INT) has thrown multiple interceptions in a game only once this season, and he is 31 for 54 (57.4%) for 536 yards, 6 touchdowns, and no interceptions in two career start against Oklahoma.
Having a Heisman candidate in the backfield does not hurt either, as running back Breece Hall leads the FBS in rushing yards with 1,357 and has 19 total touchdowns (17 rushing, two receiving). Hall has 12 100-yard games in his two seasons at Iowa State, including eight this season. He was “limited” to 97 yards two weeks ago against West Virginia, but he burned the Mountaineers as a receiver as well, with three catches for a season-high 56 yards and a touchdown.
On defense, the Cyclones have been stingy against the run since Oklahoma State ran for 226 yards against them. In the five games, they have allowed only 83.2 rushing yards per game.
Odds via Bovada
Spread: Oklahoma -6 (-105), Iowa State +6 (-115)
Moneyline: Oklahoma -220, Iowa State +180
Total: Over 58 (-110), Under 58 (-110)
See Bovada for updated lines and odds.
Key Trends & Odds
- Iowa State has scored double-digit points in the first half in all but one game (7 at Oklahoma State on 10/24). Oklahoma has scored at least 17 points in the first half in all but one game (10 vs. Baylor on 12/5). The first half total is 29.5 (O -110/U -110) at Bovada.
- At least 58 points have been scored in each of the last eight meetings between Oklahoma and Iowa State.
- The Sooners have not been held to under 30 points in consecutive games in the same season since October 2013, when they beat TCU 20-17 then lost 36-20 to Texas in the following game. Oklahoma O/U 30.5 points are O -140/U +105 at Bovada.