Super Bowl LIV Proposition Betting Preview
Perhaps the most fun you can have when betting on the Super Bowl is picking proposition bets. If you are unfamiliar with prop bets, in essence, they are situational picks you can make depending on a variety of categories during a game.
These bets cover a wide range of really fun and exciting ways for you to make some money.
Unfortunately, with such a large selection of wagers, choosing the right one can be dicey. Let’s look at the most likely prop bets and see if we can come up with a few picks you should add to your ticket.
Passing Yards: Jimmy Garoppolo (o/u 240.5), Patrick Mahomes (o/u 300.5)
In this first category, we get to choose between the two opposing quarterbacks. On one side, we have the man that rarely passes, Jimmy Garoppolo, while on the other side, we have the gunslinger, Patrick Mahomes.
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The great thing about these proposition bets is that you don’t have to pick between the two. You can add both of them to your ticket if you choose to, but which way should you lean?
Mahomes threw under 300.5 yards in seven games throughout the season (one due to injury), but big-play ability is going to be a huge factor in this bet. With players like Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce, you know that Mahomes is going to strike downfield consistently.
The only unknown that could throw a wrench in Mahomes’ passing game is whether the Niners defense will be able to get to Mahomes quickly.
San Francisco has only allowed 211 yards per game through the air this postseason. However, they played the Vikings and the Packers, two teams that weren’t the best at throwing the ball downfield.
Garoppolo’s over/under is at 240.5, which is a reasonable number considering in any scenario, San Francisco will primarily want to run the ball. Between two postseason games, Garoppolo has thrown for a total of 208 yards.
In both of those games, the Niners were able to move the ball effectively downfield on the ground, so there was no need to pass.
Considering how well the Chiefs did against Derrick Henry and the Titans two weeks ago, San Francisco might be forced to move the ball downfield through the air.
Prop Picks: Mahomes OVER 300.5, Garoppolo OVER 240.5
Patrick Mahomes Passing Touchdowns
Currently, the prop odds for Mahomes’ passing touchdowns is at 1.5. Based off the amount of weapons on the Chiefs’ offense, you can deduce Mahomes will at least throw two touchdowns.
Even with how great the San Francisco defense is, Mahomes will be able to find the end zone through the air.
Prop Pick: Patrick Mahomes OVER 1.5 Passing TD’S
Prop Bet: Player Prop Parlays
In this category, there are two picks I can recommend, starting with San Francisco 49ers running back Raheem Mostert.
At +370, Mostert’s prop is rushing for over 100 yards and the Niners to win. Considering San Francisco rides the hot hand at the running back spot, and with Tevin Coleman still dealing with a shoulder injury, you can expect Mostert to get the bulk of the workload.
If you are planning on taking the Niners in this one, tag this pick onto your ticket, Raheem Mostert +370, OVER 100-yards rushing and Niners win.
In the event that you are planning on taking the Chiefs Sunday, I’d consider taking the +420 proposition bet that Mahomes will rush for over 50 yards. Knowing that San Francisco plans to pressure Mahomes constantly, which will inevitably force him out of the pocket and create plays with his legs. If you take the Chiefs, take Mahomes +470, OVER 50-yards rushing.
Prop Bet: First Half Moneyline
Right now, the Chiefs are -122 to be ahead at the end of the half. With the slow starts the Chiefs have had this postseason, I’d rather take the 49ers +100 to lead at halftime.
Prop Pick: 49ers +100, leading at the half.
Prop Bet: Anytime touchdown scorer
This category is an opportunity for anyone to make a lot of money. With the luxury of being able to pick multiple players and build a ticket based off who will score touchdowns, there are three players I’d be sure to take in this category. Both opposing tight ends and Mahomes to run one in.
Prop Picks: George Kittle (SF) +125, Travis Kelce (KC) +100, Patrick Mahomes (KC) +350 via running touchdown.
There are more proposition bets to pick from, wagers such as, who wins the coin toss, who turns the ball over first, is the first play from scrimmage a run or a pass, and many more. The picks mentioned above, I believe, will give you the best chance at winning and coming out of the Super Bowl a champion.
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