Tom Brady Odds: How He’ll Beat the All-Time Passing Record vs Patriots

Week 4’s Sunday Night Football game will be one of the biggest in years. It’s the first time that Tom Brady will return to Gillette Stadium as a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to take on his old coach and squad: Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots.

While the night will probably be an emotional affair because of Brady’s return, there’s also a 99% chance that he’ll break the all-time NFL passing yards record against his old team, which makes the game that much more poetic. Brady currently has 80,291 passing yards on his career, putting him just 68 yards away from breaking Drew Brees’ all-time record of 80,358. Considering how the Buccaneers QB is averaging 362.3 passing yards per game in 2021, that record will likely be broken by the end of the first half.

Now, sportsbooks like Bovada have released odds on how Tom Brady will break the all-time passing yards record against the Patriots. Markets range from whether he’ll break it by the end of the first quarter to who’ll catch the record-breaking pass.

Here’s a look at some of those odds below.

Will Tom Brady Break the All-Time Passing Yards Record by the End of the 1st Quarter vs the Patriots?

Odds via Bovada as of Wednesday, September 30

  • Yes (-240)
  • No (+165)

As mentioned before, it’s hard to imagine a world where Tom Brady doesn’t break the passing yard in the first quarter. He’s averaging 90.6 passing yards per quarter this season, after all. New England has actually been great against the pass in 2021, surrendering the second-fewest passing yards per game (159.7). With that being said, the Patriots haven’t played a team on the Buccaneers’ level with a group as talented as theirs. In a game where Brady needs to defeat the only team he’s never beaten, look for him to take an early shot at breaking the record.

How Many Passes Will it Take Tom Brady to Break the Record?

Odds via Bovada as of Wednesday, September 30

  • Over 5.5 (-180)
  • Under 5.5 (+140)

According to Bovada, it will take Tom Brady at least six or more passes to break Brees’ passing yards record. To put that into context, he’s averaging 11.2 passing yards per completion this season, which means he’d need at least seven to set the new record. Obviously, nothing is guaranteed because Brady could wind up airing out a 40-yard bomb to make it so that he needs fewer completions.

Still, nobody knows Tom Brady better than Bill Belichick does. Even if New England hasn’t faced a Tampa Bay-quality team yet this year, the Patriots head coach knows how his former quarterback works. He won’t stop Brady from breaking the record, but Belichick can certainly delay it a bit, which is why it may take the 44-year-old QB a few more passing attempts to break the record.

Who Will Catch Tom Brady’s Record-Breaking Pass?

Odds via Bovada as of Wednesday, September 30

  • Mike Evans (+400)
  • Chris Godwin (+400)
  • Rob Gronkowski (+400)
  • Antonio Brown (+550)
  • Giovanni Bernard (+750)
  • Leonard Fournette (+900)
  • Tyler Johnson (+1100)
  • Cameron Brate (+1200)

Complete odds list is available on

While everyone knows that Tom Brady is going to break the passing yards record, nobody knows who’ll catch the pass that sets the new mark. According to Bovada, it’s likely to be one of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin or Rob Gronkowski at +400 odds.

Each of those options makes sense. Both Evans and Godwin are Tampa Bay’s top two wideouts, with each seeing 25 targets this season. Brady clearly has chemistry with both of them, which is proven by the fact that each player has over 200 receiving yards on the season. On the other hand, it would seem like a moment from a movie if Brady made history by throwing a pass to his all-time favorite target, Gronkowski.

Brady has connected with Gronkowski for over 8,500 passing yards, which means it’d be absolutely fitting if that’s how the record is broken come Sunday — especially in Gillette Stadium of all places.

Devon Platana
Devon Platana

After graduating with a Masters degree in Journalism, Devon joined USGS to improve his sports writing skills. As a lifelong sports fan, one of Devon’s favorite things to do is analyze statistics across all sports.