Trades That Could Shake Up The NFL Draft’s First Round
One of the most exciting parts of every NFL Draft is when Roger Goodell goes on stage and announces that a trade has just gone through. And while this year the stage may be gone, the trades will surely still come in full force.
We’re going to look at three possible trade scenarios that we may see during the first 10 picks on Thursday night, and how current odds may give us an indication on how likely these trades are to happen.
Trade 1: Chargers move into top three
According to multiple reports, Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert has moved ahead of Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa as the next quarterback selected after LSU’s Joe Burrow. This mostly stems from various teams’ concerns about the health of Tagovailoa, who had injury issues through his college career.
As of now, both the Dolphins and Chargers are rumored to prefer Herbert over Tua. Miami, which owns pick number five, may prefer to just wait for Herbert to fall to them. So if Los Angeles believes Herbert is the future of their franchise, an aggressive trade ahead of Miami may be the only way to land him.
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In this hypothetical trade, the Chargers would work out a deal with the Lions, swapping out their sixth pick for Detroit’s third pick. They would have to make it worth Detroit’s while since they will likely be fielding offers from other teams as well, Miami included.
That means Los Angeles would also likely have to part with their second-round pick, which is 37th overall, as well as another mid-round pick to get a deal done and land their preferred choice at quarterback.
Oddsmakers are also leaning toward a trade occurring, especially if it involves Herbert. According to BetOnline, Herbert getting drafted under his 5.5 projection is the favorite at -140.
He is also the favorite at -145 to be the second QB drafted and is the main reason why the “field” has the second-best odds at +350 to be the third overall pick, trailing only Ohio State cornerback Jeffrey Okudah. Okudah, who is Detroit’s number one target, is now slightly favored to be taken ahead of pick 4.5.
Trade 2: Giants, Panthers swap picks
After all of the chaos happening at number three, the Giants are the next team on the clock with the fourth overall pick. There are two different schools of thought with New York; either they address their shaky offensive line with one of the top tackles available, or they bring in the defensive playmaker Isaiah Simmons from Clemson to become the new face of their D.
While they weigh their decision, the Panthers seem to know what they want to do. All reports indicate that Carolina, which owns the seventh overall pick, wants to address their defense with their pick, and Simmons is apparently high on their radar. If Carolina wants Simmons and is afraid the Giants will select him, perhaps they can give New York an offer that benefits both sides.
Carolina could offer New York their seventh overall pick, along with their third-round pick, in exchange for the fourth overall selection. New York doesn’t have their original third-round pick due to a mid-season trade for DL Leonard Williams, so they would welcome the additional selection. The Panthers would get Simmons, while the Giants get an extra pick and still very likely have their choice of the top offensive linemen at number seven.
Some odds may give a clue in regards to a deal like this happening. Currently, on BetOnline, Simmons is the third-most likely option to be the Giants’ selection at +350, with OL Jedrick Wills and Tristan Wirfs ahead of him. The odds of them going with an offensive player are -350, compared to +225 for defense.
Carolina is also heavily favored to take a defensive player at -600. While some may wonder if the Panthers could wait and hope the Giants pass on Simmons, they could certainly do that. However, they’d run the risk of a team like Arizona or Jacksonville trading with New York instead to select the talented linebacker.
Trade 3: Broncos enter top 10
Many people are excited about this year’s wide receiver class, especially the three guys at the top. Oklahoma WR CeeDee Lamb and Alabama wideouts Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III are all first-round picks, and could all be gone by the time the Broncos make their pick. That’s why an aggressive move may be in the works.
Denver has a young quarterback in Drew Lock and a budding star at receiver in Courtland Sutton, but have been rumored to want one of the top receivers in the draft. However, the Jets, Raiders, and 49ers also covet wide receivers, and all of whom pick before the Broncos.
The only way to seemingly ensure that you get one of those guys is to work out a deal to jump ahead of those other clubs, and the Cleveland Browns seem like the most logical team to strike a trade with.
Cleveland sits at number 10 in the draft, the first of its seven total picks. Denver, who has 10 total picks, can move up from the 15th overall selection to number 10, giving the Browns a couple of additional picks that might include a third-rounder.
This trade would give the Broncos their choice of Lamb, Jeudy or Ruggs, while the Browns would still be able to address their offensive line while earning more draft capital in the process.
There is plenty of buzz for this trade being a possibility. On BetOnline, the Broncos taking an offensive player at -350 is the clear favorite over defense at +225. The Browns are also favored at -500 to go offense as opposed to +300 for defense.
The two most-likely receivers Denver would take, Lamb or Jeudy, are also both favored to go ahead of their draft positions. Lamb is -180 to be selected under pick 12.5, while Jeudy is -155 to be under the same draft position. Even Ruggs is -110 to go under pick 13.5.