UFC 264: Poirier vs McGregor 3 Could Go Either Way, According to Odds

With UFC Vegas 30 in the books, the combat sports world is turning its attention to UFC 264 as Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirer are set to clash for the third time in their careers.

Their first fight went down at UFC 178 back in September 2014, with McGregor winning by TKO at 1:46 in the first round. The Irishman’s career continued to take off at the time, which caused the two fighters to avoid any interaction until they had their rematch back in January 2021. This time, Poirier got the victory over McGregor, knocking him out at 2:32 in Round 2. With each fighter scoring a victory through the first two fights meetings, the stakes have never been as high as they are heading into the third part of the lightweight trilogy at UFC 264.

Keeping that in mind, Bovada has released its odds for Poirier-McGregor 3. Considering how evenly matched in the past, it should come as no surprise to see that each man has -110 odds to win at UFC 264.

For complete odds on the matchup, continue reading.

UFC 264 Background

Poirier-McGregor 3 will be heading UFC 264, which will take place on Saturday, July 10 live on pay-per-view. The event will take place from the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada.

The early prelims will begin at 7:15 p.m. EST and can be seen on ESPN+ and the UFC Fight Pass. The preliminary card will then begin at 8:00 p.m. EST on ESPN and ESPN+. The main card portion of the night, which includes Poirier taking on McGregor, will be available on pay-per-view starting at 10:00 p.m. EST.

UFC 264 Odds: Dustin Poirier (27-6-0) vs Conor McGregor (22-5-0)

Odds via Bovada as of Monday, June 28

  • Moneyline: Poirier (-110) vs McGregor (-110)
  • Total: 4.5 Rounds — Over (+250), Under (-350)
  • Method of victory: McGregor by KO/TKO (+120)

Complete odds list and markets available at Bovada.lv.

Will McGregor Win the Rubber Match?

Once one of the most feared fighters on the planet, McGregor has looked a little bit more human as of late, losing two of his last three fights. However, a big reason why he lost the second fight to Poirier was that he had been focusing most of his training on boxing. Now that his feud with Mayweather is firmly behind him, McGregor should more like the old version of himself come July 10 at UFC 264.

Still, the world already knows how elite of a striker McGregor can be when he’s on top of his game. After all, 19 of his 22 professional MMA wins have come by either KO or TKO. That includes when he won the UFC Lightweight and Featherweight Championships. McGregor also has the slight striking advantage entering the bout, having averaged 5.59 significant strikes landed per minute on 50% accuracy throughout his career. He’s also averaging 1.47 takedowns per 15 minutes, but his 36% accuracy on them leaves a lot to be desired.

Poirier Looking for Win No. 2 at UFC 264

Even if the odds are tied as UFC 264 approaches, one has to think that Poirier has a lot of momentum on his side. After all, he did win the second matchup between himself and McGregor pretty convincingly. Poirier also hasn’t fought since that bout, so the momentum from the win is still pretty fresh in his mind. The main difference is that McGregor should be more focused now that boxing is on the back burner. Still, Poirier can go with what worked for him in the past. He can target McGregor’s calves again, which is what led to his victory last time around.

Poirier can also try to out-wrestle McGregor if need be. Even though McGregor averages more takedowns than Poirier (0.70), “Notorious’” takedown accuracy is still just 36%. Plus, his takedown defense sits at 61%. When you compare that to Poirier, whose ratings for those categories sit at 55% and 67% respectively, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to imagine a scenario where Poirier out-wrestles McGregor.

Nevertheless, only time will tell how this fight actually unfolds.

Default image
Devon Platana
After graduating with a Masters degree in Journalism, Devon joined USGS to improve his sports writing skills. As a lifelong sports fan, one of Devon’s favorite things to do is analyze statistics across all sports.