UFC 265: Jose Aldo vs Pedro Munhoz Odds and Preview

UFC 265 is coming up on Saturday, August 7, live from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. While a lot of combat sports fans are looking forward to seeing who’ll become the Interim UFC Heavyweight Champion, there are several other exciting bouts on the card. One of those is actually the co-main event of the night — a bantamweight clash between former UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo and Pedro Munhoz.

Considering how both men are ranked in the Top 10 on UFC’s bantamweight rankings, this fight could push the winner down the path of an eventual title shot. However, before that happens, the winner has to be decided.

Here’s a look at who Bovada is projecting to win the Aldo-Munhoz bout at UFC 265.

UFC 265 Odds: Jose Aldo vs. Pedro Munhoz

Odds via Bovada as of Thursday, August 5

  • Record: Aldo (29-7-0) vs Munhoz (19-5-0)
  • Moneyline: Aldo (-115) vs Munhoz (-105)
  • Total: 2.5 Rounds — Over (-225), Under (+170)
  • Most likely method of victory: Aldo by Decision (+165)

Complete list of odds and markets are available at Bovada.lv.

Aldo Enters as Slight Favorite

At -115 odds, Aldo will enter UFC 265 as the slight favorite against Munhoz. After being, arguably, the greatest featherweight fighter in UFC history, Aldo switched over to the bantamweight division in 2019. At first, things started off rough as he lost to Marlon Moraes and Petr Yan within his first two fights. However, Aldo finally got his first bantamweight victory in December 2020 when he defeated Marlon Vera by decision. He’s yet to fight since then, so it’s pretty obvious that he’s going to try to career his momentum into his fight with Munhoz.

With this being a three-round fight, Bovada is favoring Aldo to win by decision at +165 odds. After all, out of his 29 career victories, 11 have come by decision. When it comes to this outcome, one thing that Aldo has going for him is that he’s better than Munhoz when it comes to avoiding strikes. There’s a reason why Aldo managed to have seven successful defenses as a champion and it’s because he knows how to win when it counts using his blocking and head movement.

The former featherweight champion absorbs 3.52 significant strikes per minute with a 61% defense rating, compared to Munhoz who absorbs 5.87 on 58% defense. If that trend continues at UFC 265, Aldo could find himself moving up the bantamweight rankings.

Munhoz UFC 265 Odds

At -105 odds, Munhoz will enter UFC 265 as the underdog. He first grabbed the MMA world’s attention when he knocked out Cody Garbrandt in the first round back at UFC 235 in March 2019. Unfortunately, his momentum was halted after that as Munhoz lost his subsequent two fights — each by decision. However, he put that small losing skid to rest back in February of this year when he defeated Jimmie Rivera by decision.

According to Bovada, Munhoz’s best shot at beating Aldo at UFC 265 will be by decision as well (+215). That makes sense considering how five of the Brazilian’s last seven bouts have gone the distance.

Munhoz averages 5.60 significant strikes per minute on 43% accuracy, so it’ll be interesting to see how Aldo can withstand that attack for 15 minutes. While he loves going for calf kicks, it’s going to be tougher against Aldo, who has been historically successful at defending that area from attack. Still, there’s a chance that Munhoz could throw enough strikes that it could be too much for Aldo to handle. If that’s the case, Munhoz should be able to score some points in his favor in the event that the fight does go the distance.

At the end of the day, Aldo has a lot more experience in the octagon than Munhoz, so it’ll be interesting to see if the latter can find a way to outsmart and outlast the former.

Devon Platana
Devon Platana

After graduating with a Masters degree in Journalism, Devon joined USGS to improve his sports writing skills. As a lifelong sports fan, one of Devon’s favorite things to do is analyze statistics across all sports.