UFC Vegas 38 Odds: Thiago Santos vs Johnny Walker Preview

UFC Vegas 38 is the next stop on the UFC’s calendar and it’s coming up this weekend. The event will take place on Saturday, October 2 when it airs live from the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The show is stacked with talented fighters, however, most fans are looking forward to the main event fight: a light heavyweight bout between former UFC Light Heavyweight Championship challenger Thiago Santos and Johnny Walker.

It’s the first time that the two Brazilian fighters will be squaring off, which should make for some entertaining action. This preview has everything you need to know heading into the UFC Vegas 38 main event, including odds on who’s favored to win (BetOnline) and some analysis as well.

UFC Vegas 38: Thiago Santos vs Johnny Walker Odds

Odds via BetOnline as of Wednesday, September 29

  • Record: Thiagos Santos (21-9-0) vs Johnny Walker (18-5-0)
  • Monleyline: Santos (-151) vs Walker (+131)
  • Total Rounds: 1.5 — Over (-105), Under (-125)
  • Method of Victory: Santos via KO/TKO (+100)

Complete list of odds and prop bets is available on BetOnline.ag.

Santos the Favorite in Vegas

At -151 odds, Santos will enter UFC Vegas 38 as the main event favorite. Some may be quite surprised to see the 37-year-old veteran favored considering how he’s lost his last three fights in a row, with the most recent being a loss via unanimous decision to Aleksandar Rakić back at UFC 259 in March.

Still, Santos has a proven track record and it’s that sort of experience that he’ll need to bounce back from the longest losing streak of his career. He has 15 career knockout victories to his name, which certainly counts for something. There’s also the fact that Santos’ last victory came over Jan Błachowicz, who is now the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion. Santos knows that if he can continue rising up the divisional rankings (he’s currently No. 5), he has a legitimate chance of dethroning Blachowicz. The best way to get there begins by defeating Walker this weekend.

Walker is prone to mistakes and his 31% strike defense rating proves that the door is open for a Santos knockout victory — hence why that’s the favored method of victory. Walker has been knocked three times in his career and hasn’t been facing competition that’s on Santos’ level as of late. If the former light heavyweight challenger can forget about his three-fight losing streak, he should walk out of UFC Vegas 38 victorious.

Johnny Walker UFC Vegas 38 Odds

Johnny Walker has had his fair share of attention after joining the UFC just three years ago. He’s gone 5-2 since competing on Dana White's Contender Series Brazil 2, which includes three Performance of the Night honors and four victories by KO/TKO. However, it’s been a while since Walker has fought with his last match being a KO victory over Ryan Spann back in September 2020.

Now, he’s the +131 underdog ahead of UFC Vegas 38.

Walker has impressed the handful of UFC events he’s competed at, averaging 4.41 significant strikes landed per minute on 72% accuracy. While his defense could use some improvements, he’s also shown that he can handle himself on the ground as well. That’ll come in handy against Santos, who likes to go for the takedown every now and then.

Still, that doesn’t change the fact that Walker hasn't faced the toughest competition in his brief UFC career. That isn’t to say that he can’t defeat Santos, especially considering how the veteran is on a losing steak and might have to leave the company if he loses his fourth straight match. However, Walker is facing one of the best fighters that the sport has seen and even if Santos is on a losing streak, things won’t be easy in Vegas this weekend.

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Devon Platana
After graduating with a Masters degree in Journalism, Devon joined USGS to improve his sports writing skills. As a lifelong sports fan, one of Devon’s favorite things to do is analyze statistics across all sports.