Alex Smith Odds: Where Will the Free Agent Quarterback Sign?

After making an improbably return to the NFL after almost losing his leg a few years ago, Alex Smith is set to become a free agent. Free agency begins less than a week away on March 15. Fans are wondering where Smith will start Week 1 of the 2021 season.

In the 2020 NFL Season, Smith started six games and played in eight of them. He threw for 1,582 yards, six touchdowns and eight interceptions.

While Smith looks like he can still play, he’s far from the quarterback he once was. But that doesn’t mean he won’t get offers in free agency. According to Bovada, Smith is most likely to start for the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1 of the 2021 NFL Season. The odds of that happening are +180.

Where Will Alex Smith Play For Game 1 Of The 2021 Regular Season?

Odds via Bovada as of Friday, March 12

  • Jacksonville Jaguars +180
  • Kansas City Chiefs +290
  • Chicago Bears +350
  • Denver Broncos +500
  • San Francisco 49ers +500
  • New England Patriots +700
  • Miami Dolphins +800

Is Alex Smith Jacksonville-Bound?

The Jaguars have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. They’re projected to draft Trevor Lawrence out of Clemson to be their future franchise quarterback. But could they still sign Alex Smith?

There’s always the possibility that Lawrence may not be ready out of training camp. Having a veteran life Smith could be helpful because he could play until Lawrence is ready, similar to what happened with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tua Tagovailoa in Miami last season. And if Lawrence is ready in Week 1, Smith would be a good presence to have anyway.

Chiefs Return an Option for Smith

Before joining the Washington Football Team in 2018, Alex Smith spent the previous five season with the Kansas City Chiefs. Smith left his mark on the Chiefs’ record book. He currently sits third in passing yards (17,608) and fifth in touchdowns (102). While the Chiefs never had any deep playoff runs with Smith, he did mentor Patrick Mahomes before he was ready to take over the starting quarterback job.

At +290, it’s not unrealistic for Alex Smith to end his career in Kansas City. Mahomes is still the starter, so Smith would be more of a bench presence. He’s also never won a Super Bowl. Signing with the Chiefs would be one of Smith’s best bets to get a ring with how they constantly cruise through AFC playoff matchups.

Could Alex Smith Be a Bronco?

While it would be nice for Alex Smith to get paid to sit on a bench, maybe he doesn’t want that. Maybe he wants to be the starting quarterback somewhere. He could have that option with the Denver Broncos (+500). Drew Lock has been disappointing in the quarterback position for the Broncos.

Smith could be the affordable option that the Broncos need. He takes minimum risks and won’t lose the Broncos any games because of his playstyle. The Broncos also only allowed 32 sacks this season, which would offer Smith better protection than he had in Washington. In eight games in 2020, Smith was sacked 22 times.

San Francisco 49ers in the Mix

The San Francisco 49ers are rumored to possibly land Sam Darnold, but they could easily bring Alex Smith back to town. He started his career with the 49ers in 2005 and stayed until 2012.

Signs are pointing to the 49ers moving away from Jimmy Garoppolo. Smith would be a suitable replacement because he’s someone the franchise is familiar with. Plus, the 49ers have one of the best defenses in the NFL, which would take pressure off of Smith to carry games. He’d also be a safe replacement until the 49ers find their quarterback of the future.

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Devon Platana
After graduating with a Masters degree in Journalism, Devon joined USGS to improve his sports writing skills. As a lifelong sports fan, one of Devon’s favorite things to do is analyze statistics across all sports.