NFL Retirement Odds: Who Will Be the Next Quarterback to Retire?

On March 14, Drew Brees announced that he would be retiring, marking the end of an era in New Orleans. Now, the attention has turn to which early-2000s eras quarterback would be next to announce his NFL retirement.

According to Bovada, Ben Roethlisberger will probably be the next quarterback to announce his NFL retirement. The odds of that happening are -105.

The 39-year-old will be entering his 18th season with the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2021. While Roethlisberger did throw 33 touchdowns last season, he only totalled 3,803 yards — his lowest total in a full season since 2012. People had concerns that he was going to retire after the 2020 season, but Roethlisberger signed a new contract with Pittsburgh in early-March. Still, he’s shown signs of slowing down and it’s only a matter of time before he can’t be a starting quarterback anymore.

Read on to see which other quarterbacks could announce their NFL retirement next.

Which Quarterback Will Announce Their NFL Retirement Next?

Odds via Bovada as of Monday, March 22

  • Ben Roethlisberger -105
  • Alex Smith +125
  • Tom Brady +1000
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick +1400
  • Aaron Rodgers +2500

Is Alex Smith Next to Retire?

Many thought that Alex Smith (+125) was going to retire after he almost needed his leg amputated due to a freak injury back in 2018. However, Smith persevered and managed to start at quarterback for the Washington Football Team last season. Now, Smith is a free agent and looking for his next contract.

The 2020 NFL Comeback Player of the Year proved that he could be a serviceable quarterback option last season. But how long will that last? Even though he overcame his leg injury, he’s still 36 years old and isn’t getting younger.

When Will Brady Retire?

After being drafted in 2000, it seems like Tom Brady is never going to announce his NFL retirement. Just this week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers extended Brady’s contract so that he would be on the team until the end of the 2022 NFL Season. By then he’ll be 45 years old and he won’t have much left to prove. One of the big reasons he joined the Buccaneers is that he wanted to prove he could win a Super Bowl without Bill Belichick. He did that in his first year in Tampa.

At +1000, there’s a decent chance Brady could retire when his contract is up. On the other hand, he hasn’t shown slides of slowing down yet.

Fitzpatrick Could Contemplate NFL Retirement

On March 15, Ryan Fitzpatrick (+1400) signed a one-year, $10 million contract with the Washington Football Team, the ninth team of his NFL career. However, just a few weeks before that, rumors circulated that he may retire this offseason.

There were also rumors that Fitzpatrick’s NFL retirement was approaching before the 2020 season, so it wasn’t anything new. While he showed he could still play (2,091 yards and 13 TDs in nine games), he’s turning 39 in November.

Rodgers’ NFL Retirement a Long Shot

Aaron Rodgers (+2500) has three seasons left on his contract with the Green Bay Packers. Could his NFL retirement really happen before that contract is up? After the Packers lost to the Buccaneers in the 2020 NFC Championship game, he was asked about his future. Rodgers replied saying he’d “take some time away” to clear his head, which led to people speculating about a possible retirement.

However, athletes can say things in the heat of the moment. The fact that Rodgers threw 48 touchdowns and over 4,000 yards last season shows he still has a lot in the tank. He might want to retire while he’s still on top, but Rodgers showed that he’s capable of being a top-tier NFL quarterback at his age.

Devon Platana
Devon Platana

After graduating with a Masters degree in Journalism, Devon joined USGS to improve his sports writing skills. As a lifelong sports fan, one of Devon’s favorite things to do is analyze statistics across all sports.