The US 2020 Presidential election, which is scheduled to be held on the 3rd of November, features the current President, Donald Trump, and the Democratic party candidate, Joe Biden, as the major aspirants.
Joe Biden leads by a landslide according to the national polls, but the betting odds of this match-up suggests a rather close margin.
Biden’s odds of winning are -195 on BetOnline, with a 66.67% conditional probability of winning. And that of President Trump’s sits at +160, with a 33.33% probability of winning.
A Bump in Trump’s Odds
With the election being less than a week away, Trump’s odds have seen a slight improvement. While still being an underdog in this election betting outcome, his odds have made a significant increase for the first time in a week.
President Trump’s odds now sit at +160 as opposed to the +175 odds it was at last Tuesday. With Joe Biden’s odds taking a slight reduction from -200 down to -195, he is still very much the favorite to win.
Coming off from three rallies he held in different states, Michigan, Nebraska, and Wisconsin, Trump is looking to make an impact in the Grand Canyon State today, holding two rallies in Bullhead City and Goodyear. Arizona is a big Republican State as they have not voted for the Democrats since 1996, but seem to be swaying in the direction of Joe Biden as seen several polls.
However, Trump’s bump in his odds might be short-lived as the New York Times on Tuesday released an investigative piece into the Republican party presidential candidate’s tax returns. This article made for a good read as it showed and illustrated how the President avoided the repayment of loans taken to build his Chicago skyscraper, up to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars. In this article, it was said that he also tried to sue the lenders, who resulted in forgiving a large portion of his debts for what they tagged as “predatory lending practices.”
This might hurt his campaign and thus translate into a reduction in his odds and chances of winning.
Biden Taking the Lead with Both Hands
While the former vice president’s odds took a slight dive recently, Joe Biden is still the favorite with odds set at -195. An amazing rise for the Democratic party candidate, whose odds were +1000 in February.
With Biden swaying to his direction, some key states that saw Trump victorious in the last presidential election against Hillary Clinton, he is unimaginably taking the lead which no one saw coming six months ago. An ABC News/Washington Post poll released on Wednesday morning suggests that Joe Biden is a favorite in Wisconsin, a Trump powerhouse, with odds of -340.
Voter’s Interest and Turnout
The US 2020 Presidential election has been predicted to garner a record turnout come November 3rd. This is as a result of the massive number of early votes registered via mail-in or in-person voting due to the fear of long queues and a chance to maintain the coronavirus regulations.
According to the US Elections Project, over 3.8 million votes had already been recorded as of October 3rd for the 2020 Presidential election. In contrast to the last presidential election in 2016, only 75,000 votes had been recorded at the said time.
The founder of the US Elections Project, Michael McDonald, who is also a professor at the University of Florida, has predicted the 2020 presidential election to set a record of about 150 million people to partake in the election come November. This would, however, translate to 65% of eligible voters, the highest ever rate to be recorded since 1908.
BetOnline and Smarkets are accepting bets on the election turnout. Smarkets have three categories to satisfy your betting range, a turnout of under 55% has its odds set at 54/5, a turnout between 55% – 57% is set at 29/5 odds, and over 60% gets you odds of 1/3. While BetOnline has two categories, a turnout of over 149.5 million voters is set at -225, and a turnout of over 60.5% is set at -150.
Impact of the US 2020 Presidential Election on the Betting Industry
The last presidential election recorded a staggering number of bettors engaging in various betting options, with about $258 million spent on betting this single event on Betfair Exchange alone. The current presidential election is on course to make a caricature of the past election’s betting record, as Betfair has already recorded over $215 million placed on various betting outcomes of the election as of Monday, October 26th, and it is predicted to attain and possibly go over the $400 million mark, by November 3rd. The spokesman for Betfair, Sam Robsbottom, described the 2020 election as one with the potential to become the biggest single betting event of all time.