President Donald Trump’s odds of winning former vice president Joe Bid in the US Presidential Election is down to about 30%, according to notable betting markets.
The USA presidential election day is less than 3 weeks (20 days) away, and the betting odds have continued in favor of former vice president Joe Biden.
Information obtained from Betfair currently puts Biden at -277 and President Trump at +200, postulating that Biden is currently favored at more than 2/3 to win the US presidential election. It should be noted that these odds are subject to daily fluctuations.
Candidate | Odds | Implied probability
Joe Biden | -277 | 67.8%
Donald Trump | +200 | 30.6%
The current odds are the worst president Trump has been associated with within eight months. However, Trump resurfaced from a more difficult situation four years ago to win Hillary Clinton. According to Betfair, president Trump is also 9/10 to win the popular votes. From 2016, it is clear that you can win the presidential election without the popular votes.
The US 2020 Presidential Election: An Overview of President Trump’s Odds
President Donald Trump started his bid for a second term in office on a solid note. He was the clear favorite to win the 2020 presidential election. His Odds showed a 61.9% chance of retaining the presidency in February 2020. However, events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the looming US inflation, and the president’s recent coronavirus positive result and subsequent 11 days hospitalization took the winds out of his sails, resulting in a profound drop in his chances.
President Trump’s odds slipped over the months, and now the odds show his chances of winning the election at about 31%. However, Trump has 20 days to turn the tides in his favor. The presidential debate slated for Thursday, 15 October 2020, would have been an excellent opportunity for Trump to battle out and even the odds.
The cancellation of the debate due to the President’s COVID-19 positive result and the failure to hold a virtual debate implies that Trump will have to look elsewhere to boost his chances. A recent appearance at Orlando, Florida, improved Trump’s chances and showed that Trump is still fighting to be in the race. Florida has historically been an essential state in US presidential elections. Trump will be aiming to win the state just as he did in 2016.
A town hall meeting has been fixed to replace the presidential debate, and the third and final presidential debate scheduled for 22 October 2020 is another avenue to improve his odds.
The US 2020 Presidential Election: An Overview of Former Vice President Joe Biden’s Odds
Former vice president Joe Biden’s odds have risen astronomically over the last couple of months. In January 2019, he stood at a 5.9% chance of winning the US presidency. However, his fortune began to improve in March 2020, he began to be the favorite in June 2020, and currently, he is leading the pack with a 68% chance of winning the election.
As the challenger, recent occurrences such as the COVID-19 pandemic, US inflation, and significant riots across American cities did little to his chances. His odds rose progressively over those periods.
Despite the favorable odds set on Joe Biden by bookmakers, the betting behavior of bettors favors Donald Trump. Recent statistics showed that among the stakes placed on the 2020 US Election, 59% of players bet on Donald Trump to win the next month’s presidential election, and just 35% of bettors place bets on Joe Biden to win the 2020 presidency.
The next 20 days are crucial for Joe Biden’s presidential bid. He has to maintain his advantage and push for more victories in battleground states such as Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Proposed appearances of former President Barack Obama on Biden’s campaign in Florida, Wisconsin, and North Carolina could also help Biden’s chances.
Betting Markets for the 2020 US Presidential Election
Betting on political elections is not on offer by the numerous legal and regulated bookmakers in the USA. However, European bookmakers offer different betting markets for the upcoming US elections. Most notable are:
- Popular vote winner market
- Winning party market
- Individual candidate market