UFC 264 Co-Main Event: Gilbert Burns vs Stephen Thompson Odds

While a lot of people are looking forward to the third clash between Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor at UFC 264, that’s not the only exciting match on the card. A promising co-main event is also scheduled for July 10 as Gilbert Burns is set to take on Stephen Thompson in welterweight action. Considering how they’re the No. 2 and No. 4-ranked fighters in their division respectively, this fight could have some serious future title match implications.

Keeping that in mind, BetOnline has released odds heading into the fight. While it’s projected to be a fairly close fight, one fighter is certainly being favored more than the other. To find out who that is, continuing reading to see BetOnline’s odds heading into UFC 264’s co-main event.

UFC 264 Odds: Gilbert Burns (19-4-0) vs Stephen Thompson (16-4-1)

Odds via BetOnline as of Monday, July 5

  • Moneyline: Burns (+138) vs Thompson (-158)
  • Total: 2.5 Rounds — Over (-156), Under (+148)

For more odds, including prop bets, check out BetOnline.ag later this week for updates.

Thompson Favored Entering Fight

At -158 odds, Thompson is the clear favorite ahead of his UFC 264 bout with Burns. He’s recently been on a little winning streak, having won his last two fights in a row with the most recent being when he defeated Geoff Neal by unanimous decision back in December 2020. Before this winning streak, Thompson had lost three of his previous four fights, which shows that he’s doing his best to turn things around.

When it comes to winning fights, Thompson excels in two categories: knockouts and outlasting his opponents. Out of his 16 professional MMA victories, seven have ended via knockout (although, most were early on in his career) and another eight have come by decision. In fact, Thompson’s last four victories have been decided by unanimous decision. It’ll be interesting to see if he can outlast Burns, who hasn’t lost by decision since his fight against Michel Prazeres in September 2016.

Thompson also has the striking advantage heading into UFC 264. He’s averaging 4.24 significant strikes landed per minute compared to Burns’ 3.22. Thompson also has better at defending, absorbing just 2.80 significant strikes per minute on a 58% defense rate compared to his opponent’s 3.04 and 54% respective ratings.

Can Burns Pull Off The Upset?

While Burns may be the underdog in this UFC 264 welterweight bout, he was on a six-fight winning streak before losing to Usman at UFC 258 for the UFC Welterweight Championship. If that loss didn’t shake him up too badly, he could certainly continue his momentum this weekend. During his winning streak, Burns showed off how he could win in multiple ways, scoring four wins by decision, one by TKO and one by submission.

Nevertheless, Burns faces a tough task considering how the 38-year-old Thompson has only been knocked out once and has yet to submit in 21 professional MMA fights. That means that he might have to try and outlast Thompson, which clearly is easier said than done. It’s going to take a lot for Burns to silence the doubters, especially after getting knocked out in the third round of his most recent fight. Nevertheless, he’s challenged for the UFC Welterweight Championship once and a win over Thompson would put him in prime position to do it again. Only time will tell if his past experience will help him at UFC 264.

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Devon Platana
After graduating with a Masters degree in Journalism, Devon joined USGS to improve his sports writing skills. As a lifelong sports fan, one of Devon’s favorite things to do is analyze statistics across all sports.