UFC Vegas 41: Paulo Costa vs Marvin Vettori Odds and Preview

This past weekend’s mixed martial arts moments have come and gone, which means it’s time to switch focus to UFC Vegas 41. The event is going down on Saturday, October 23 at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. It’s an absolutely loaded card with some great bouts, however, it’s hard not to admit that most people are looking forward to the main event showdown between a pair of former UFC Middleweight Championship challengers in Paulo Costa and Marvin Vettori.

Both fighters are trying to get back into the title picture with a victory in Las Vegas. As it stands, Costa is currently the No. 2 middleweight fighter while Vettori sits at No. 5. It isn’t hard to see how a victory — especially a decisive one — could improve either man’s career for the better.

Fortunately, BetOnline has released odds heading into the UFC Vegas 41 main event, shedding more light as to which man is likely to win.

With that being said, here’s a look at those odds.

UFC Vegas 41 Odds: Paulo Costa vs Marvin Vettori

Odds via BetOnline as of Monday, October 18

  • Record: Paulo Costa (13-1-0) vs Marvin Vettori (17-5-1)
  • Moneyline: Costa (+132) vs Vettori (-152)
  • Total Rounds: N/A — Over (N/A), Under (N/A)

Check BetOnline.ag for more odds later in the week, including prop bets.

Paulo Costa Looking to Restart Win Streak

After joining the UFC in 2017, Costa (+132) began quite the hot streak. The 30-year-old Brazilian was a perfect 8-0 before signing with the company and continued that streak by winning his first five UFC fights — four of them by TKO. However, that streak came to an end when Costa challenged Israel Adesanya for the UFC Middleweight Championship at UFC 253 just over a year ago. The challenger was knocked out at 3:59 in the second round and has not fought since that loss.

Now, he’ll look to turn things around at UFC Vegas 41.

The thing is that we haven’t seen how Costa rebounds from a loss since the one to Adesanya was the first of his career. He’ll likely be going for the knockout against Vettori since 11 of his 13 victories have come from that method. The problem with that is that Vettori has never been knocked out in his career and has a 63% strike defense rating.

Costa is definitely the better striker of the two, however, if he ends up on the mat, it could be game over. Vettori is one of the top grapplers in the division and could easily outmatch the Brazilian if things end up on the mat.

With that being said, Costa was won 13 fights in a row for a reason. Now, he has a chance to prove that he’s good enough to start a new winning streak all over again at UFC Vegas 41.

Marvin Vettori UFC Vegas 41 Odds

At -152 odds, Vettori enters the UFC Vegas 41 main event as the favorite over Costa. Like his opponent, the 28-year-old is also coming off of a UFC Middleweight Championship loss. Vettori was defeated by Adesanya at UFC 263 this past June. The difference is that while Costa was knocked out, Vettori lasted until the end and lost by unanimous decision. At the end of the day, a loss is still a loss, however, the method also explains why he’s the favorite.

For the most part, Vettori has responded well to a loss. When he lost to Adesanya the first time back in April 2018, he followed it up by winning his next five bouts in a row. In fact, Vettori has begun a winning streak of five matches or more following three of his five career losses. If anyone can bounce back from defeat, it’s him.

As mentioned before, Vettori’s best shot at winning this weekend would be to take his opponent to the mat. He’s averaging 2.24 takedowns per 15 minutes on 47% accuracy, while Costa has zeroes in both of those columns.

Ali Abdelaziz, Vettori’s manager, has said that his client will use his own striking to force Costa to wrestle him. As mentioned earlier, Vettori does have decent striking defense and he can throw out his own as well (3.88 landed per minute). Abdelaziz also added that he predicts his client will win by stoppage within the first three rounds at UFC Vegas 41, so it’ll be interesting to see if Vettori can back up those words.

Regardless, one thing is for certain: Costa vs Vettori is certainly shaping up to be quite the exciting collision.

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Devon Platana
After graduating with a Masters degree in Journalism, Devon joined USGS to improve his sports writing skills. As a lifelong sports fan, one of Devon’s favorite things to do is analyze statistics across all sports.